On Friday, September 12th, Russia and Belarus began a joint military exercise called “Zapad 2025” that bent military muscles and showed great force near the east side of NATO, days after 20 Russian drones violated Polish airspace.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, training, including polar missiles and simulated nuclear attacks, takes place in both countries and in the Baltic and Barents seas. This is the first such joint exercise since being led by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and perhaps the most intense moment between Russia and NATO, even before the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Belarus Russian war games shift military hardware near NATO border
The exercise, involving around 13,000 troops, suggests small numbers by Belarus, focusing on advocacy against a hypothetical NATO invasion, followed by anti-aggression. Drills near the Polish border include nuclei-enabled Oleshnik missiles, raising concerns in Europe. General Karsten Brewer, head of the German army, said NATO is not clear to prepare for an immediate attack, but NATO is on alert. However, Polish security expert Jacek Siewiera warned that the exercise could become a prelude to a large-scale Russian operation in the spring, leaving military equipment near the NATO border.
After the recent invasion of Russian drones, tensions escalated, with four drones shot down, and other drones penetrating 275 kilometres into Poland. Polish investigators have proposed five drones targeting military bases that are important for Ukraine’s weapons shipping. Prime Minister Donald Tass rejected the allegations of the mistake by saying in X that he “knows that’s not the case.” Poland sparked consultations on Article 4 of NATO and summoned Russian diplomats to allies such as Spain, Latvia and the Netherlands. The Czech Republic is deploying special forces, and Germany doubles the Eurofighter typhoon squadron with Poland’s warning.
Belarus sniffed Russia’s accumulation, increasing NATO defenses at the border
NATO frontline provinces, particularly Poland and Latvia, have increased their defenses, Poland has closed the Belarusian border, and Latvia has closed the airspace along the frontier. The Swarki gap, a vulnerable corridor between Belarus and the exclusives of Kaliningrad in Russia, is the focus of concern. Previous Zapad exercises preceded the invasions of Russia’s Georgia (2008) and Crimea (2014).
Belarus wanted to remove Western sanctions, invited NATO observers to release 52 prisoners, including opposition journalists. Meanwhile, NATO is running its own Quadriga 2025 exercise, including a Lithuanian “Thunder Strike” with a troop of 17,000 and a German supply route testing through the Swarki Gap. As tensions grow, the region is decorated for potential escalations.
