Creator( )Professor Sven Biscop, Acting Director of the Egmont Institute
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U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt was a sincere altruist. Of course, the United States is at the center of the international order, and in 1944-1945 he laid the foundations for it, especially in the economic field.
But most other countries saw their interests served as well and accepted that the United States, as the strongest of the great powers and the ultimate guarantor of order, would occasionally act against the rules so long as Washington continued to preserve the system as a whole.
The illegal invasion of Iraq in 2003 severely damaged that trust in the United States. But in the end, it did not become a turning point in the world order itself. Because the United States pretended that its wars were indeed helping to maintain order, even though that was patently false and resulted in 15 years of chaos in the region.
Today, America has given up all prestige. By kidnapping President Maduro, the Trump administration deliberately placed itself outside the international order.
Instead of a multilateral order in which all countries have a voice (even if, of course, some countries are more equal than others), Trump is trying to divide the world between the United States, Russia, and China.
dangerous plan
Last December’s National Security Strategy was not a piece of paper, but a plan in action.
The North and South Americas are the sphere of influence of the United States. The seizure of Mr. Maduro sends a message to his supporters, Russia and China, that President Trump is serious and to eliminate him.
That immediately begs the question: Will Trump enforce this on ownership of Europe and Greenland as well?
So what is Russia and China’s sphere of influence in President Trump’s view? What concessions is he prepared to make in order to achieve the agreement he is seeking with them?This is where it becomes dangerous for Europe.
For President Trump, peace with Ukraine is not an end in itself, but a means to normalize relations with Russia. Therefore, for President Putin, this American strategy is very good news.
Has President Trump shown President Putin a line not to cross? He certainly seems willing to sacrifice large parts of Ukraine.
Fortunately, Europe used its remaining influence to force its way into the negotiations. President Trump cannot control Europe’s aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
So far, Europe has been able to avoid an agreement that would force Ukraine to make too many concessions. But what if, for President Trump, even the sovereignty of some current EU and NATO member states is not a red line he should cross?
Even if a peace deal can be concluded in Ukraine, it will not permanently contain Russia’s ambitions.
Mr. Xi is probably also quite satisfied with the U.S. strategy of aiming for a pragmatic agreement rather than a permanent confrontation.
Furthermore, China does not consider Russia to be a true global player. For China, Trump’s plan is effectively equivalent to dividing the world into two powers instead of three.
Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has used stronger language than Mr. Biden against Taiwan, causing dissatisfaction with China.
But at the same time, Trump is forcing Taiwan to invest in chip production in the United States (and pay for American weapons that won’t be delivered until years later). Again, President Trump’s red line is not clear.
This ambiguity may serve strategic purposes. In other words, it sends a signal to Russia and China that they should tread carefully. Or does President Trump still not know?
But President Trump is absolutely clear that the EU must disappear. Europe must act, not collectively decide, and that would be much easier if Mr. Trump dealt only with the European states that helped bring his far-right allies to power.
NATO may survive, but the alliance doesn’t really matter to President Trump because he views Russia as a partner rather than a threat. Treating Europe as quantitatively negligible has already been a tactic of Russia and China.
Now the US is doing the same, which will further encourage other countries to take tough action against Europe.
Where is Europe?
Can the existing international order be saved? perhaps. No nation wants to be forced into another nation’s sphere of influence. Europe must take advantage of it.
Even China is likely not entirely convinced that abandoning the existing order is such a good idea. The Chinese government has gained significant influence within the system and needs stability to implement its geoeconomic strategy.
And China will never simply give up its strong presence in Latin America. Moreover, how much is an agreement with a fickle figure like Trump worth?
But if Europe wants to maintain a rules-based order, it will need to act to protect it. Stop being afraid of America’s reaction.
Therefore, President Trump’s NSS is already a declaration of hostility towards the EU. The overly cautious reaction after President Maduro’s kidnapping was a grave error in judgment. This is not about Venezuela, but about Trump’s strategy for the world.
So what kind of world does Europe refer to? A firm and unanimous condemnation of all attempts, including by the United States, to create a sphere of influence by force would be a good start to clarifying Europe’s position and beginning to recruit partners to its cause. But first there has to be a cause.
Professor Sven Biscop, Egmont Institute Lectures at Ghent University.
