As summer 2025 approaches, transatlantic travel between the US and Europe has undergone significant changes in recent years.
“The last two summers were extremely powerful for transatlantic travel, especially among Americans,” says Brian Sumers, editor of The Airline Observer, a newsletter covering the airline’s business. “Those who remembered being denied their right to travel abroad jumped to fill the planes. Demand was not only hot in the summer, but also in two months when traditionally less popular.”
However, in recent months there has been a soft demand for flights between the US and Europe, ranging from rising inflation and fluctuating exchange rates to concerns about stricter immigration control and uncertainty regarding the visa process. They led many travelers to rethink their long-distance travel plans and opted for domestic travel instead.
Airline routes have also changed as traveller priorities have changed on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the past few weeks, there have been various reports of European airlines pausing transatlantic growth and thwarting planned flights to several major US cities. Lufthansa, for example, reduced the frequency of routes to New York, Miami and Chicago, while KLM reduced flights to San Francisco and Boston. Similarly, British Airways blocked operations to Orlando and Philadelphia and completely withdrawn from Las Vegas, but Iberia cut flights to Chicago and shelved the planned Dallas route indefinitely.
Despite declining flight options on some routes, airfares are lower than expected.
“We actually call it the golden summer of cheap flights,” says Scott Keyes, founder and chief flight expert at Going, a travel app and flight newsletter, from afar.
This is a rare example of fewer flights leading to lower prices. For travelers still eager to getaways in Europe, this offers a unique opportunity to fly at a cheaper speed (compared to the prices of the skies in recent years). Of course, there are a few trade-offs.
More European airlines are cutting flights to the US
According to Keyes, nine European airlines have reduced flight volumes to the US this year. For context, in 2024 there were six European airlines with fewer US flights, and in 2023 there were eight European airlines. He added that more European airlines are cutting US flights this summer, but that’s not too high than the previous year. But what’s different is the extent of the decline between Europe and the US this year.
“In the past few years, capacity reductions have usually been single digits lower,” Keys said that flight capacity has declined by 16.5% this summer in Norway’s northern Atlantic, 33% for UK TUI, 24.4% for Portugal’s Azores Airlines, 12.8% for German Condor and 38.2% for Icland’s Play. “As well as these dramatic cuts, as opposed to business travelers, all airlines for leisure vacationers belong to the airline.”
Other European Airlines have reduced certain flight paths to the US, but Keys points out that they have increased the increase in flight volumes (by adding flights to other transatlantic routes or using larger planes that can transport more passengers).
“Compared to 2024, overall capacity is still 4% higher this summer,” Keyes says. “Despite some famous flight cuts, there hasn’t been a summer with more transatlantic flight options than this year.”
Given the rare reduction in slow schedules, Schmer says he doesn’t think there will be more flight cuts in the summer.
Mike Arnot, a spokesman for aeronautical analytics firm Cirium, said “Top US airlines are not adjusting their schedules in a critical way.” This means that there are still many options for Americans to travel to Europe.
Lower fares are available now
The airline wanted another big summer where passengers could fill the planes, but Schmer says he reports that it reported softer demand than the airline executives he is talking to wanted.
“For consumers, this is really good news,” Sumers says. “Even with cuts, there are probably too many transatlantic seats. Passengers are hoping to see summer fare sales in Europe at levels they haven’t seen in a while. And that’s in every class, from the economy to business.”
Travelers may also be more likely to upgrade at a decent price, says Sumers, and they should be able to have more award seats available. It’s perfect for people with lots of miles and credit card points.
Keys reflects that sentiment. “When demand is falling, airlines try to lower prices to fill seats, which may be one of the most affordable summers that fly internationally than we have seen in many years.
Recent flight deals shared with users include a return trip from New York or Boston to Mykonos, Greece for $486 (cheapest fees in July and August), from Naples, Italy, $560 in July, and from Dublin, Ireland, for $479 in July, with a return trip from Dublin to Dublin.
If something goes wrong, there are fewer flights and fewer alternatives
With the number of available flights, travelers should be prepared for potential headaches in the event of cancellations or delays. If the flight is grounded, if the airline has limited ability to rebook passengers on the same day, there will be fewer alternatives, which could lead to longer wait times, overbooked flights, or extended layovers.
“What travelers can actively do is a book about a full-service career rather than a budget airline,” Keys says. “That’s because full-service airlines have significantly more flights and partner airlines, so there are significantly more options if the original flight is changed.”
If there is confusion in the flight itinerary, Keyes emphasizes speed. “When a flight is destroyed, re-bookings are processed on a first-come, first-served basis. Being the first booking is important to avoid long delays by re-booking yourself through the app or calling the international hotlines that are sparsely used by airlines.” Below are some tips for handling flight delays or cancellations.
