WASHINGTON: In the capitals of the Middle East, at the United Nations, since White House and beyond, the Biden administration is making the most concentrated diplomatic effort in the eight-month war in Gaza to persuade the leaders of Israel and Hamas to accept a proposed agreement that would bring cease-fire and release more hostages. But just one week into the U.S. pressure campaign, the world is still waiting for signs that President Joe Biden’s May 31 ceasefire call has worked, shifting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leaders towards a breakthrough in negotiations.
For Israel and Hamas, the US diplomatic press has become a public test of whether either side is willing to stop fighting – at least on terms that differ from its professed goals, whether that be the complete crushing of the militant group or the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip.
For Biden, who refers to the proposal as an Israeli one, it is the latest high-profile test of U.S. leadership aimed at persuading ally Israel as well as militant groups to stand down in a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people, inflamed regional tensions and absorbed much of the administration’s attention.
Here’s a look at the U.S.-led ceasefire effort in Gaza and its current status:
Public speaking
It wasn’t that the ceasefire proposal that Biden unveiled a week ago in a televised White House address was initially modern. It happened that Biden presented the conditions to the world and with the full weight of the American presidency supported the appeal to both sides to accept this agreement.
The terms Biden described for the first of three stages sounded very similar to the deal that mediators from the United States, Qatar and Egypt, as well as Israel and Hamas, have been haggling over for months.
There will be a six-week ceasefire during which Israeli forces will withdraw from populated areas of Gaza. In exchange for Israel’s release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas will release some of the women, elderly and wounded among the hostages it captured during the October 7 attacks in Israel that started the war.
The proposal calls for the complete release of the remaining hostages and an Israeli withdrawal in later phases, although the terms are unclear.
“Anyone who wants peace now must raise their voices and let leaders know they should accept this agreement,” Biden said a week ago.
But as of Friday, neither Israel nor Hamas had said yes. Netanyahu says the terms of the proposal differ from those described publicly and that Israel will never stop fighting until the Hamas military and leadership are “destroyed.”
As a result, said Nimrod Novik, a former senior adviser to the tardy Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, Biden “decided to outsmart” Netanyahu and inform the Israeli public of the seriousness of the potential for the release of all hostages.”
US goal: “For Israel to agree” to its own proposal, said Novik, now an Israeli member of the Washington-based Israel Political Forum.
Maintaining pressure
The Biden administration is not giving up on its efforts to include Hamas and Israel.
“The United States will do everything in its power to continue to push this. Until there’s nowhere left to go,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence official. He is currently the Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program.
At the United Nations, US diplomats ask the Security Council to adopt a resolution demanding a indefinite ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, despite Israel’s opposition. Next week, Biden will send Secretary of State Antony Blinken back to the Middle East for his eighth visit since the war began and a rapid tour of Middle Eastern capitals to promote ceasefire proposals.
CIA Director Bill Burns and Biden’s Middle East adviser Brett McGurk also traveled to the region to drum up support for the deal and show key players how it could work.
The Group of Seven leading world economies supported the proposal. The same applies to countries where militants hold hostages in Gaza. Biden, Blinken and other U.S. officials are on phones to drum up support from Arab governments from Egypt and Qatar to Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Many allies appear to welcome the president’s initiative to restart ceasefire talks after weeks of drift, Panikoff said.
View from Israel
There is little evidence – so far – that U.S. efforts have been sufficient to change the political system in Israel. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have vowed to overthrow the government if the Israeli prime minister accepts the proposal outlined by Biden.
Netanyahu, losing in public opinion polls and facing an ongoing corruption trial, has no incentive to risk entering another election. Although opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered Netanyahu support over the hostage deal, the two men are bitter enemies and there is no reason to believe any alliance will last.
Benny Gantz, a centrist member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, has called a news conference for Saturday in which he is expected to address his earlier threat to resign by this weekend if Netanyahu does not publish a plan for the war and Gaza.
Netanyahu will still control a parliamentary majority if Gantz leaves. But the departure of Gantz, a former military chief and defense minister well respected in Washington, would weaken Netanyahu’s international credibility and leave him more dependent than ever on far-right coalition partners who believe Israel should reoccupy Gaza and oppose a ceasefire request.
Popular protests could be one of the few scenarios that convince Netanyahu to reach an agreement, Novik said. Alternatively, Novik maintained, the mere threat of public condemnation from Biden could prompt Netanyahu to compromise, given the importance of the United States as an ally.
What about Hamas?
Hamas is expected to present a formal response to the proposal pushed by Biden in the coming days, according to what Qataris and Egyptians, who are communicating directly with Hamas officials during the negotiations, told U.S. officials this week.
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told reporters in Beirut this week that Biden’s announcement was “positive” but said the group could not accept any agreement without Israel’s guarantee of a lasting ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and an exchange prisoners and other conditions.
Although Hamas’s supreme leader and other political figures are based abroad, Hamas must also relay any proposals to Yahya Sinwar – whose opinion is paramount – and other military leaders in Gaza. They inhabit tunnels reaching 30 meters or more underground and are believed to have surrounded themselves with foreign hostages to discourage attack.
For Israel and Hamas, the US diplomatic press has become a public test of whether either side is willing to stop fighting – at least on terms that differ from its professed goals, whether that be the complete crushing of the militant group or the complete withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip.
For Biden, who refers to the proposal as an Israeli one, it is the latest high-profile test of U.S. leadership aimed at persuading ally Israel as well as militant groups to stand down in a conflict that has killed tens of thousands of people, inflamed regional tensions and absorbed much of the administration’s attention.
Here’s a look at the U.S.-led ceasefire effort in Gaza and its current status:
Public speaking
It wasn’t that the ceasefire proposal that Biden unveiled a week ago in a televised White House address was initially modern. It happened that Biden presented the conditions to the world and with the full weight of the American presidency supported the appeal to both sides to accept this agreement.
The terms Biden described for the first of three stages sounded very similar to the deal that mediators from the United States, Qatar and Egypt, as well as Israel and Hamas, have been haggling over for months.
There will be a six-week ceasefire during which Israeli forces will withdraw from populated areas of Gaza. In exchange for Israel’s release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, Hamas will release some of the women, elderly and wounded among the hostages it captured during the October 7 attacks in Israel that started the war.
The proposal calls for the complete release of the remaining hostages and an Israeli withdrawal in later phases, although the terms are unclear.
“Anyone who wants peace now must raise their voices and let leaders know they should accept this agreement,” Biden said a week ago.
But as of Friday, neither Israel nor Hamas had said yes. Netanyahu says the terms of the proposal differ from those described publicly and that Israel will never stop fighting until the Hamas military and leadership are “destroyed.”
As a result, said Nimrod Novik, a former senior adviser to the tardy Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, Biden “decided to outsmart” Netanyahu and inform the Israeli public of the seriousness of the potential for the release of all hostages.”
US goal: “For Israel to agree” to its own proposal, said Novik, now an Israeli member of the Washington-based Israel Political Forum.
Maintaining pressure
The Biden administration is not giving up on its efforts to include Hamas and Israel.
“The United States will do everything in its power to continue to push this. Until there’s nowhere left to go,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. intelligence official. He is currently the Director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Program.
At the United Nations, US diplomats ask the Security Council to adopt a resolution demanding a indefinite ceasefire between Hamas and Israel in Gaza, despite Israel’s opposition. Next week, Biden will send Secretary of State Antony Blinken back to the Middle East for his eighth visit since the war began and a rapid tour of Middle Eastern capitals to promote ceasefire proposals.
CIA Director Bill Burns and Biden’s Middle East adviser Brett McGurk also traveled to the region to drum up support for the deal and show key players how it could work.
The Group of Seven leading world economies supported the proposal. The same applies to countries where militants hold hostages in Gaza. Biden, Blinken and other U.S. officials are on phones to drum up support from Arab governments from Egypt and Qatar to Saudi Arabia and Jordan.
Many allies appear to welcome the president’s initiative to restart ceasefire talks after weeks of drift, Panikoff said.
View from Israel
There is little evidence – so far – that U.S. efforts have been sufficient to change the political system in Israel. Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners have vowed to overthrow the government if the Israeli prime minister accepts the proposal outlined by Biden.
Netanyahu, losing in public opinion polls and facing an ongoing corruption trial, has no incentive to risk entering another election. Although opposition leader Yair Lapid has offered Netanyahu support over the hostage deal, the two men are bitter enemies and there is no reason to believe any alliance will last.
Benny Gantz, a centrist member of Netanyahu’s war cabinet, has called a news conference for Saturday in which he is expected to address his earlier threat to resign by this weekend if Netanyahu does not publish a plan for the war and Gaza.
Netanyahu will still control a parliamentary majority if Gantz leaves. But the departure of Gantz, a former military chief and defense minister well respected in Washington, would weaken Netanyahu’s international credibility and leave him more dependent than ever on far-right coalition partners who believe Israel should reoccupy Gaza and oppose a ceasefire request.
Popular protests could be one of the few scenarios that convince Netanyahu to reach an agreement, Novik said. Alternatively, Novik maintained, the mere threat of public condemnation from Biden could prompt Netanyahu to compromise, given the importance of the United States as an ally.
What about Hamas?
Hamas is expected to present a formal response to the proposal pushed by Biden in the coming days, according to what Qataris and Egyptians, who are communicating directly with Hamas officials during the negotiations, told U.S. officials this week.
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told reporters in Beirut this week that Biden’s announcement was “positive” but said the group could not accept any agreement without Israel’s guarantee of a lasting ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and an exchange prisoners and other conditions.
Although Hamas’s supreme leader and other political figures are based abroad, Hamas must also relay any proposals to Yahya Sinwar – whose opinion is paramount – and other military leaders in Gaza. They inhabit tunnels reaching 30 meters or more underground and are believed to have surrounded themselves with foreign hostages to discourage attack.
