The port of Long Beach near Los Angeles California. Credit: ADLC/ShutterStock.com
Most American companies, as well as 38% of European and Chinese companies, are preparing to raise prices in the coming months as the impact of President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs reverberates through the global economy. A new Allianz Trade survey says 54% of US companies are planning to raise prices to offset rising import costs, but only 15%, or just 15%, to absorb these additional costs themselves.
A new study by Allianz Trade draws a harsh picture of global business sentiment, triggered by the “liberation day.” This is now widely used on April 2, 2025, when President Donald Trump’s administration announced a radical escalation of tariffs on China.
The findings are part of a broader picture drawn by the Allianz Spring Survey, which canvases around 4,500 companies in nine countries, including the US, China, Germany and France, and between March and April 2025, 38% of respondents expect to raise prices in response to crime and responses between the US and Chinese companies leading Chinese companies.
Price increase, push costs, and parakeet shift
Globally, businesses are trying to offload rising costs. In the US, 54% of businesses say they will increase their prices from 46% of tariffs. Meanwhile, particularly in Spain and Poland, sourcing from alternative markets has gained positions.
Few people are willing to absorb costs directly. Only 22% consider this to be viable. This is a further decline in the US, France and Italy since April.
New purchasing terms have also been introduced. Many buyers are now claiming “delivered obligations” agreements and shifting customs and logistics costs to sellers. The US remains an outlier, with “cost, insurance, freight” still dominating.
In addition, businesses are spreading currency risk. 59% have introduced price clauses that link contract value to Forex movements, allowing them to share volatility with clients and suppliers.
A blow to exporters’ confidence
Before the “liberation date,” only 5% of export companies expected their turnover to decline. Currently, 42% exclude a 10% decrease from 2% the following year. Nearly 60% of the companies surveyed expect a negative impact from the new round of new hostilities in the US and China.
Export optimism has collapsed. Less than half of companies expect export growth, down from 80% just a few weeks ago. Additionally, a quarter (27%) warns that currency volatility, combined with higher tariffs, could force a temporary production halt, while a third plan to halt imports or offshore operations to manage rising costs.
Investment strategies diverge dramatically
The trade war also changed investment priorities. In Germany, 45% of companies currently support cost reduction and efficiency, while Chinese companies are taking a broader approach. 77% are directing their funds towards strategic diversification and new business lines.
This difference highlights the asymmetrical effects of conflict. While Western companies are retreating to protect margins, Chinese companies appear to be using it as an opportunity to relocate the crisis.
Lack of payments and increased risk of default
Exporters face cash flow issues. Half expects payment delays of more than seven days. This is an increase of 13 points since the “liberation date.” In Italy and Poland, the figures are even more serious, with concern rising 23 and 26 points respectively.
Currently, only 11% of export companies that receive payment within 30 days are exporters. Large companies, particularly those with revenues above 5 billion euros, are particularly vulnerable and face a quarter of payment terms over 70 days. Sectors such as retail, agriculture and manufacturing are taking the brunt of the brunt, with SMEs being particularly exposed. Naturally, the fear of non-payment is widespread. Nearly half of all exporters expect payment defaults to rise, especially in the US, UK and Italy.
American companies are front roads and routes
The temporary trade agreement reduced the average US tariffs on Chinese goods from its previous 103% peak to 39%, which remains three times the rate in place before Trump took office. result? Strategic front road.
Long before the tariffs were officially announced, 79% of US companies began to accelerate imports of China, particularly agriculture, machinery and metals. Rerouting is currently a favourable mitigation strategy, with 62% of US companies exploring alternative transport lanes.
Global competition to diversify
The company is not standing still. One in three have already found new markets in their export and supply chains, with almost two-thirds planning to follow the lawsuit. For US companies, pressure is acute. Overseas production has already transferred 60%, driven by increased exposure and longer supply chains.
Geopolitical instability is currently considered one of the top three risks in the global supply network. Even before the latest tariffs, 34% of businesses had shifted or planned offshore production, while 59% were preparing for more changes.
Despite the ceasefire, decoupling continues
The 90-day suspension between the US and China offers a short grace period, but has not changed the strategic direction. Chinese companies are increasingly distant from North America and support relocation to Asia-Pacific and Western Europe. In particular, all surveyed Chinese companies with North American supply chains say they intend to move from 79% before April.
Meanwhile, American companies are also coordinating. The preference for relocation to Western Europe has more than doubled from 11% to 25%, while interest in Latin America has risen from 9% to 25%. The Asia-Pacific region, once a major destination, currently sees interest rates falling (down from 61% to 34%).
This reorganization has already collided with trans-Pacific trade. The intentions of US companies to export to China and East Asia fell 11 percentage points. China’s interest in North America plummeted from 15% to just 3%.
Friendshoring and Latin America exceptions
A new alliance is being formed amid geopolitical turbulence. Europe is becoming a favourable trading partner for both China and European exporters. Chinese companies are increasingly targeting Europe, while EU-based companies are doubling their interest in South and Southeast Asia.
German companies once wanted to leave China, but have shown more willingness. The relocation plan has fallen from 67% to 50%, making the Asia-Pacific the largest relocation destination for people currently exposed to North America.
Meanwhile, Latin America is quietly becoming a key beneficiary. For Chinese companies, interest in the region has tripled and it offers the US a tariff-friendly backdoor. European companies are also showing greater interest in the perceived 6 percentage points of export opportunities in Latin America.
Volatility is new normal
The Allianz Trade Research draws a clear picture. The trade war has led to an irreversible change in movement. The Day of Liberation may have marked the US’s positive return to protectionism, but it has now entered an era of strategic restructuring for the global business community. Rerouting, diversification, friend holing – these are no longer emergency plans, they are core strategies.
As tariffs rise and geopolitical tensions deepen, businesses are adapting quickly. And the new trade map is redrawn right in front of you.
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