“Inside Out 2” will hit theaters and will be broadcast for 100 days. Here’s why it’s becoming rarer

Disney wants to bring some joy to theaters with the upcoming release of Pixar’s Inside Out 2.

Current expectations are that the animated sequel will easily top $85 million during its domestic premiere next weekend, which would make it the highest debut of any film released in the United States and Canada in 2024. Some have even predicted that the film could bring in more than $100 million in ticket sales, a feat not seen since July 2023. When Warner Bros. “Barbie” has entered cinemas.

“Inside Out 2” has already grossed $13 million in Thursday night previews in North America. By comparison, 2019’s “Toy Story 4” generated $12 million in Thursday previews and $120.9 million in its opening weekend.

Any opening figure above $50 million would be a boon for Pixar, which has struggled to regain its box office standing after the pandemic. However, Disney seems confident about “Inside Out 2” as the film is expected to play in theaters for 100 days, which is now an almost unheard of period for animated films and non-blockbuster live-action films.

While most consumers are lukewarm about theatrical release windows – the period of weeks or months during which a film is shown exclusively in theaters before being released on streaming or other on-demand options – for theater operators and box office analysts, a commitment of more than three months of exclusivity the large screen is a large deal.

Before the pandemic, the industry standard was the so-called 90-day theatrical window (though according to market research firm The Numbers, the average was actually closer to about 75 days).

Only a few films have gone beyond this date – usually massive franchises or blockbusters. After this time, the film can move to the home video space, which includes digital downloads, DVD and Blu-Ray discs, and availability on streaming services. After this date, films will still be shown in cinemas, but will then compete with domestic sales.

When the pandemic hit and theaters were forced to close, studios had to decide whether to hold off on releasing their films until theaters reopened or make them available via streaming or video on demand in the meantime.

Disney was one of the companies that decided to make a number of its animated offerings available to the home market at this time.

As theaters began to reopen, studios renegotiated the length of time that films had to stay on the large screen before they could hit the domestic market. After all, up-to-date variants of Covid-19 and a vaccine not widely available have prompted many moviegoers to stay home. The result was highly variable exclusivity timelines as each studio negotiated its own deal with the major theater chains.

For example, universal and Focus Features signed a deal that required films to be released in theaters for at least three weekends, or 17 days, before they could be made available on premium video-on-demand platforms.

“Ninety-day windows have always been unsustainable,” said Jeff Kaufman, senior vice president of film and marketing at Malco Theaters. “The pandemic kind of accelerated it.”

Changing theatrical windows present studios and theaters with a complicated equation.

Before the pandemic, studios were pushing to shrink the window to reduce marketing spend, explained Daniel Loria, senior vice president of content strategy and editorial director at Box Office Company.

Studios paid significant sums to market films before their theatrical release, only to have to re-create the buzz months later for the film’s domestic release. With shorter windows, studios don’t have to spend as much to reacquaint audiences with the film because it’s likely still fresh in their minds from when it debuted.

“My impressions of the upcoming films [premium video on-demand] early usually means deciding not to double your marketing spend,” Loria said.

Last year, the average screen time for a widely distributed film was 39 days, according to The Numbers. So far in 2024, the average mileage is 29 days. Of course, as bigger blockbusters come out during the summer months, this number will augment.

There are cases where studios have extended their operations well beyond the typical theatrical window. For example, in 2022, Paramount and Skydance’s “Top Gun: Maverick” played in theaters for over 200 days before being released domestically.

These numbers only refer to the point at which a film becomes available for rental in the domestic market. Typically, the wait time for movies to become available on subscription streaming services, often considered “free” by these subscribers, is much longer.

The Numbers reported that the average time interval between theatrical release and subscription streaming launch was 108 days in 2023.

In the early days, they experimented with timed releases, which meant movies were released in theaters and on streaming at the same time. But that faded as studios realized that these simultaneous releases were cannibalizing sales and leading to higher piracy rates.

It should also be taken into account that many actors and directors have contractual provisions that award them a percentage of theatrical profits. In 2021, actress Scarlet Johannson sued Disney for simultaneously releasing the 2020 Marvel film “Black Widow” on streaming and theaters. She claimed that her contract with the studio guaranteed an exclusive theatrical release of her solo film and that her salary was based largely on box office performance. Johannson and Disney later agreed to an undisclosed monetary amount.

Still, Universal has begun toying with the model of showing horror movies around Halloween, recently deciding to release “Five Nights at Freddy’s” in theaters and on streamer Peacock. Although the film had a stellar opening weekend, topping $80 million at the domestic box office, ticket sales dropped by over 76% in its second weekend, reaching just $19 million.

Of course, shorter exclusivity and lower ticket sales may have an adverse impact on cinema chains that are still struggling to recover their operations after Covid-19. However, some argue that incorrectly positioning the window can also have an adverse effect on the film.

“A sufficient window is essential not only for exhibitors, but also for our studio partners as it is indispensable to ensuring the full promotional and financial benefits of a film’s theatrical release, which continues to significantly enhance the film’s value across all distribution channels, including streaming.” said Sean Gamble, president and CEO of Cinemark.

That’s the lesson Disney learned from the pandemic.

Both Walt Disney Animation and Pixar struggled to recover at the box office as pandemic restrictions eased and audiences returned to theaters. This was largely due to the fact that Disney chose to debut several animated films directly on the Disney+ streaming service during theater closures and even after theaters reopened.

The company has sought to pack its fledgling streaming service with content by cutting back on original teams and pushing theatrical films directly to digital format.

This learning animated has trained parents to look for up-to-date Disney titles on streaming rather than in theaters, even if Disney has decided to return its films to the large screen.

As a result of this and other challenges, no Disney animated film from Pixar or Walt Disney Animation has generated more than $480 million in global box office revenues since 2019. For comparison, just before the pandemic, “Coco” generated $796 million worldwide, while “Incredibles 2” earned $1.24 billion worldwide and “Toy Story 4” earned $1.07 billion.

Box office experts consider “Inside Out 2” a barometer of Pixar’s health and its future. If a film captures audiences’ attention and performs well on its opening weekend and beyond, animation studios will regain the goodwill of audiences and the industry.

The 100-day window for “Inside Out 2” could be the key.

According to Sebastian Gomez, research and data analyst at The Numbers, Disney is one of the few studios that does not have a conventional premium movie-on-demand window. This means that after the theatrical run ends, the film will go to Disney+, where subscribers will be able to watch it for free, instead of using the intermediate rental option.

By delaying its home release, Disney is signaling to viewers that Pixar’s latest must-see on the large screen.

The first “Inside Out” film, which hit theaters in 2015, grossed $90.4 million in its opening weekend, and worldwide ticket sales exceeded $850 million.

Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.