In 2026, the number of asylum seekers moving across the EU from countries with the greatest migration pressure is expected to be lower than previously expected.
Interior ministers from the 27 EU member states will discuss the size of the “solidarity pool” at a meeting in Brussels on Monday. It determines the total number of asylum seekers to be relocated in the coming year and the amount each country must allocate or compensate in payments.
The European Commission has proposed relocating a certain number of asylum seekers from four countries considered to be “under migration pressure”: Spain, Italy, Greece and Cyprus.
Details of the proposal are confidential, but sources say the pool could be as high as 30,000 people. However, EU member states are expected to try to reduce this number, as governments are not keen on accepting more migrants or paying compensation to other countries in doing so.
“It will be less than 30,000.”
According to EU rules, countries classified as “under migration pressure” will next year benefit from mandatory solidarity with other EU member states, either relocating asylum seekers to their territory or providing funding to the countries most under pressure.
It is the responsibility of the European Commission to propose the size of this solidarity mechanism, with a statutory minimum of 30,000 transfers and a financial contribution of 600 million euros. Member states can then decide how they want to contribute.
According to EU officials who have seen the confidential documents, the European Commission chose the highest possible minimum level of transfers.
In practice, this means that 30,000 asylum seekers will be relocated from the four southern EU member states to the other 23 countries in varying numbers. They will be transferred according to quotas based on each state’s population and GDP.
The European Commission’s proposal expresses shares in percentages rather than actual numbers, with Germany accounting for the largest share, according to people familiar with the document. Some 42% of the proposed relocations involve people rescued at sea and disembarked in one of the four countries under pressure.
However, member states are keen to reduce this total, arguing that the first solidarity cycle needs to be shortened, as the new immigration rules will only come into force in June 2026.
“Countries want to adjust the scale,” said one diplomat. “It will be lower than the amount proposed by the committee.”
Although this reduction is not explicitly provided for in the law, lawthe committee seems open to the possibility next year.
“Although the Commission’s proposal for an annual solidarity pool covers the entire year, shortening the implementation period is a factor that the Council may consider in the process leading to the adoption of a solidarity pool,” a Commission spokesperson said at a press conference on Friday.
member states say no
The pool could become smaller in size and the number of contributing Member States could also be reduced.
According to the European Commission’s proposal, a separate group of countries classified as “facing a serious migration situation” could request a full or partial exemption from their quota, which would require the approval of other member states.
Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland have this option, and most have requested exemptions, multiple EU officials told Euronews.
In Poland’s case, the request was announced by Prime Minister Donald Tusk hours after the proposal.
“Poland will not accept migrants under migration agreements, and we will not pay for them,” he said. I wrote With X.
Any exemption must be approved by a qualified majority of the EU Ministers. This means that 15 of the 27 member states, representing at least 65% of the EU’s total population, must support it.
Transfers and funding shares of exempted countries will not be reallocated to other states, meaning countries “under migration pressure” will receive less support in the overall package.
“Exemptions and reductions must be as low as possible and based on real motives,” one diplomat said, suggesting this would be particularly controversial at this meeting.
For example, despite Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Hungary is not granted exemptions or reductions. claim He won’t apply the rules.
Sources say most EU member states would rather pay a financial contribution of 20,000 euros for each person who does not migrate rather than accept migrants. Some countries, such as Germany and Sweden, may benefit from “liability offset”, a mechanism that could further reduce the de facto transfers foreseen by law.
Several member states in Central Europe and Northern Europe are currently hosting people who should have applied for asylum in their first country of arrival, but instead move around the EU irregularly (so-called “secondary migration”).
According to the offset mechanism, any country can deduct these people from its solidarity quota instead of sending them back to the frontline countries, but this has so far proven to be very complicated.
“Italy and Greece did not accept transfers under their previous system, so this mechanism provides a concrete opportunity,” said one diplomat.
