You may have watched Manchester United reach their second FA Cup final in as many seasons, touching the leather of Haji Wright’s left boot, and chalked it up to a lucky escape that his 3-0 collapse over Championship rivals didn’t deserve.
Erik ten Hag, however, didn’t think United were lucky. He was most emotional during his post-match press conference when discussing his team’s misfortune, particularly Coventry City’s injury-time penalty, arguing that handballing Aaron Wan-Bissaka was an “absolutely crazy” decision.
Ten Hag adopted a similar line of argument ahead of United’s final Premier League match against Bournemouth. While accepting that “like the minister” he would have ultimate responsibility for results, he couldn’t aid but lament the bad luck his team had experienced over the past eight months.
“It’s huge. A lot of things have gone against us this season,” he said. And while United’s woes aren’t constrained to referee calls in Ten Hag’s mind, that’s where he focused his attention.
“You see all the penalties we conceded last week (against Chelsea and Liverpool) could have been taken differently. You think that during the season sometimes you will score a goal and sometimes you will concede a goal. This season we only seem to be losing points.
Manchester United have received five penalties this season and conceded 11, including four in the first four games of the Champions League group stage. While most of the players in Europe have not been particularly controversial, many of the six Premier League player losses have sparked debate.
Some of them were gentle – notably the concessions of Rasmus Hojlund and Casemiro against Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers – while others were more questionable. It is significant to note that none of these resulted in the referees responsible resigning in the next round of fixtures, as was the case after Wolves were denied a penalty at Venerable Trafford on the opening weekend of the season.
However, all these decisions are a matter of opinion. Apart from offside, most refereeing judgments are subjective and, as the VAR era has taught us, there are different definitions of what constitutes a clear and obvious error.
Ten Hag has a more substantive basis for complaints about what is arguably the most significant reason for United’s problems: player injuries and enforced absences. All but four senior members of the team – Bruno Fernandes, Andre Onana, Diogo Dalot and Alejandro Garnacho – have passed through United’s revolving treatment room door at some point this year.
The 2-2 draw with Bournemouth was the first time United had kept their line-up unchanged since the first two games of an injury-ravaged season. According to data from transfer marketSince the start of the season, United have spent a total of 1,710 days on the bench.
Ten Hag said last week that he has been unable to pick his “favorite” squad since the 2-1 victory over Manchester City at Venerable Trafford last January. Just as United’s injuries seemed to have subsided, modern concerns emerged.
Fresh problems for Willy Kambwala, Mason Mount and Sofyan Amrabat meant United’s list of absentees had once again risen to double figures ahead of the semi-final, with Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay both appearing to struggle after being substituted at Wembley.
Marcus Rashford coming off injury at Wembley (Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
Ten Hag believes that the absence of either of his first-choice left-backs for most of the season has had a significant impact on United’s ability to play the way they want. Lisandro Martinez’s unavailability deprived him of a player who made a huge impact in his first year in Manchester.
But does it all depend on luck, or can some things be done differently? United have begun work on restructuring their medical department with the appointment of head of sports medicine Gary O’Driscoll. The sources, who asked not to be named to protect their accounts, believe there have been noticeable improvements since the former Arsenal club doctor arrived and that the restructuring is progressing rapidly.
Ten Hag’s training methods have also come under scrutiny and can be intense, particularly for non-players, who are subjected to demanding sessions the day after the match to maintain a consistent level of physical stress throughout the team. The quick, direct and often tumultuous style of play adopted this season also needs to be factored into the equation.
Everyone knows by now that United have a lot of shots on target – a total of 574 in the Premier League this season. No top-flight team has ever faced such a high number of games in each match, but in the context of recent history the number becomes even more extraordinary.
Since the 2016/17 season, eight of the 15 top-flight teams that received more shots than United have been relegated. None of them finished higher than 15th. At the current rate, United will overtake all 15 teams, and yet even in the absolute worst case they cannot finish lower than 14th.
Ten Hag defended Manchester United’s apparent willingness to take shots, arguing that they were mostly low-quality chances, and he’s right. The average shot United has taken in the league this season has had a 10 per cent chance of scoring.
Andre Onana has been busy this season (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
The worst results in this respect are recorded by Brentford and Newcastle, where the average chance of scoring a goal is 13%. The difference between a 13% and 10% chance is petite but significant. A marginal gain, if you will.
However, if you concede at least 20 shots a game, which United have been doing regularly lately, and one in 10 finds the net, you’ll need to score three goals to win. The eighth worst attack in the league, with just 47 goals in 32 league games, cannot count on that.
United’s 47 goals are on par with Luton Town and in line with the expected figures. Defensively, Ten Hag conceded 48 goals, one of the better records in the Premier League, but with an expected total of 59.8.
If we subtract one from the other, United’s expected goal difference is -12.2, the fifth worst in the league. Suddenly an actual goal difference of -1 doesn’t look that bad after all.
But nothing can change the perception and narrative around a team like a successful run of games, at least in the brief term, and now Manchester United will face the bottom two places in the Premier League at Venerable Trafford in the space of four days.
It goes without saying, but in every way United are a better team than Sheffield United and Burnley. They shouldn’t have the luck to prove it.
(Top photo: Glyn Kirk/AFP via Getty Images)
