Ryan Gosling stars in Universal’s “The Fall Guy.”
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For the first time since 2009, there is no Marvel movie at the box office to kick off the summer movie season – and it shows.
Since the release of “Iron Man” in 2008, Marvel Cinematic Universe films have consistently kicked off this incredibly lucrative theatrical season, with only two films bringing in less than $100 million in openings over that time (not counting pandemic years).
This year the main movie of the first summer weekend was Universal “The Fall Guy.” Despite sturdy marketing efforts and solid reviews, it failed to augment ticket sales at its opening last weekend. During its domestic debut, the film earned just under $28 million.
“‘The Fall Guy’ also starred Ryan Gosling and Emily Blunt, but the lack of a high-profile franchise and niche storyline made the film too narrow to attract a summer-style mass audience,” Eric Handler, managing director at – wrote on Monday in a note to Roth MKM investors.
The stumble doesn’t bode well for summer ticket sales, which were already expected to decline from last year’s $4.1 billion total after twin workers’ strikes in Hollywood halted production and blocked novel movie releases.
According to Comscore’s Paul Dergarabedian, box office revenues in the summer of 2024 could ultimately decline by as much as $800 million compared to 2023, with a long-term impact throughout the year. After all, the key summer period, which runs from the first weekend in May through Labor Day, typically accounts for 40% of the nation’s total annual box office sales.
A restricted and unstable stream of novel movies means viewers haven’t had the chance to experience movie trailers and poster promotions in local theaters and may not know what movies will hit the gigantic screen. In addition, this summer’s cinema offerings are not as extensive as in previous years and include fewer blockbusters and major franchise films.
Only one superhero movie is scheduled for this summer – “Deadpool and Wolverine,” Disney’s first R-rated film – and it won’t premiere until overdue July.
Currently, analysts believe that ticket sales for the summer movie season will top $3 billion, but just barely. Pre-Covid, summer box office revenues consistently exceeded $4 billion. The last season ticket sales were just $3 billion in 2000, according to Comscore data.
“Even considering the inevitable year-over-year decline in revenues, summer 24 should be judged more on the quality and value of the cinematic experience than on the amount of cash in the drawer,” Dergarabedian said.
Hopeless summer
Handler noted that so far this quarter, ticket sales are down 48% year-over-year. While he expects the May offering to facilitate boost ticket sales, the box office “will need to see some gigantic hits” to “regain some of the lost ground.”
“Right now, theater operators need a significant infusion of content,” Handler wrote. “In the second quarter, not only has the content decreased, but it also lacks spice.”
The biggest summer movie premieres
May 9 – “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes”
May 17 – “IF”
May 17 – “Strangers: Chapter 1”
May 24 – “Furiosa: The Mad Max Story”
May 24 – “The Garfield Movie”
June 7 – “Bad Boys: Ride or Die”
June 14 – “Inside Out 2”
June 21 – “Cyclists”
June 28 – “A Silent Place: Day One”
July 3 – “Despicable Me 4”
July 19 – “Twisters”
July 26 – “Deadpool and Wolverine”
August 9 – “Kresy”
August 16 – “Alien: Romulus”
August 23 – “Wrona”
For the rest of May, Disney’s “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” is currently targeting a domestic opening weekend of between $55 million and $60 million. Paramount’s IF is estimated to be worth around $40 million. And Warner Bros. “Furiosa” is expected to fetch between $40 million and $50 million.
However, these forecasts pale in comparison to major releases from the same month last year. Universal’s “Swift
There’s no word yet on whether there will be any breakout hits this summer, like last year’s Angel’s “Sound of Freedom,” that could boost overall ticket sales.
Robust finish
In summer 2024, the offer will be more family-friendly. A plethora of animated films from well-known brands should attract parents and children during the school holidays.
Currently, Universal’s “Kung Fu Panda 4” is the second highest-grossing film in the country in 2024, with $188.4 million in ticket sales. “Dune: Part Two” from Warner Bros. and Legendary Entertainment was the year’s highest-grossing domestic release with $281.3 million.
In the last period of the year, several sturdy players will join the team.
“Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” will be released in early September, “Joker: Folie a Deux” in October along with “Venom: The Last Dance,” and “Gladiator II,” “Moana 2” and “Wicked” in November. Additionally, “Kraven the Hunter”, “Sonic the Hedgehog 3” and “Mufasa: The Lion King” will appear in December.
It is worth noting that the first “Joker” earned $335 million in the domestic market in 2019, both “Venom” films generated $213 million each, “Moana” from 2016 – $248.7 million, and the two previous ” Sonic” grossed $146 million and $190 million in theaters.
“Ultimately, the race is won in the multiplex, not in the spreadsheet,” Dergarabedian said.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal and CNBC.
