In parliament, opposition members condemned the breach as a “fundamental failure”. Photo credit: samoila ionut/Shutterstock
On 26 November, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) mistakenly published the Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) for November for more than 40 years. Minutes before Prime Minister Rachel Reeves formally introduces her budget in Parliament. This unprecedented error exposed key government tax, spending and economic forecasts before they were published, sparking immediate political and market concern.
Within hours, OBR deleted the document and issued an apology. The commission’s chairman, Richard Hughes, described the incident as a “technical but serious error” and “the worst failure in the watchdog’s 15-year history”, and an internal investigation has been launched.
How did the leak happen?
Technical vulnerabilities, not sabotage
The investigation concluded that the breach was not the result of hacking or outside interference. Rather, it was due to existing failures in OBR’s document publication procedures, specifically the misconfiguration of websites that allowed access to sensitive reports via predictable URLs. Dozens of users accessed the file ahead of the budget speech.
Officials have acknowledged that the vulnerability has existed for some time, highlighting weaknesses in the system in how it handles sensitive accounting documents.
Collapse of politics and markets
Financial turmoil and Congressional outrage
The leak sparked an immediate market reaction, with British government bonds volatile and the pound floating as traders processed early announcements of tax and spending plans.
In parliament, opposition MPs denounced the breach as a “fundamental failure” and accused the government of misleading the public about its fiscal outlook. The timing undermined the effectiveness of Mr Reeves’ speech and raised questions about the confidentiality and reliability of the UK’s fiscal forecasting process.
Accountability and institutional reform
Chairman’s resignation under consideration
Under pressure, Richard Hughes resigned on December 1, taking full responsibility for the mistake. The OBR’s independent commission described the incident as “the worst failure in its 15-year history”.
The watchdog is working to overhaul the publishing system and replace existing platforms with more secure, government-controlled infrastructure. A forensic audit of previous budget releases was also promised to ensure that no unreported leaks occur in the future.
Important points
- On 26 November, the OBR mistakenly published economic and fiscal forecasts before the Chancellor tabled his budget.
- This breach was caused by a misconfiguration in the website publishing procedure, not by hacking.
- The error caused market reactions such as bond volatility and fluctuations in the pound.
- Opposition members criticized the government’s mismanagement of financial statistics.
- Richard Hughes took full responsibility and resigned on December 1st.
- OBR implements a secure public disclosure system and conducts forensic audits.
- His resignation is a symbolic move to restore confidence in Britain’s fiscal oversight.
- An extensive review of the budget process is underway.
Looking to the future
Restore confidence in UK fiscal oversight
The OBR chair’s resignation marks an important step towards accountability, but rebuilding trust will take time. Future predictions are closely scrutinized and reforms to the publishing process aim to prevent technical oversights.
As the UK faces economic uncertainty, including rising debt, planned tax changes and pressure on public services, the credibility of the institutions tasked with independently predicting fiscal accuracy is more important than ever. Ensuring that sensitive budget information is handled securely is essential to maintaining public and Congressional trust.
